以色列只有融入中东社会才能实现持久和平

王京烈

内容提要：以色列发动加沙战争的近期目标是铲除哈马斯为大选筹集资本，战略目标是为日后的巴以谈判铺平道路争取更多的利益；以色列不应以打击哈马斯为借口，侵犯或剥夺巴勒斯坦人的生存权；只有公正解决巴勒斯坦问题，以色列融入中东社会，才能在中东地区实现持久的和平。

岁末年初，以色列对加沙地带发动了大规模的空袭，数日后对加沙采取地面军事行动。目前加沙地区约有150万人口，虽说在哈马斯控制下，但面对以色列强大的战争机器根本没有什么正规的抵抗力量。以色列军队像“饺肉机”一样在加沙地带横冲直撞，哈马斯、巴勒斯坦人蒙受了巨大的损失，战争爆发以来的两个星期中伤者约4000人，死亡854人，其中儿童270人、妇女68人、老人90人，占死亡人数的一半。[1]有媒体称，“以色列把加沙变成了一座鬼城。”的确，加沙到处硝烟战火、残垣断壁、满目疮痍，这是21世纪令全世界都为之震惊的血腥事件。

以色列为何发动加沙战争？

——铲除哈马斯的武装抵抗能力。哈马斯是带有浓厚宗教色彩、比较激进的巴勒斯坦抵抗组织，曾声言要在整个巴勒斯坦建立“伊斯兰国家”，执政后逐步接受“两个民族两个国家”的理念，但其所属的武装力量仍是目前巴勒斯坦抵抗组织中比较激进且有一定实力的武装。据以色列的统计2008年曾遭受1257枚火箭袭击，大部分都是哈马斯武装所为。[2] 所以以色列视哈马斯为“眼中钉”，早就想除掉哈马斯，至少要削弱其抵抗能力。而此次的入侵加沙也是蓄谋已久的。

——为竞选筹集政治资本。今年2月以色列将进行大选。而有关机构的几次民意测验都显示出“前进党”大大落后于“利库德集团”。在以色列民众仍在“向右转”、犹太极端民族主义尚有较大活动空间、黩武主义依然盛行的社会历史环境中，前进党认为，打击哈马斯武装力量是其获取政治资本的最佳手段。此前以色列外长利夫尼就曾明确表示，如果她上台执政，首先就是要铲除哈马斯武装力量。

——雪洗以军在黎巴嫩战争中的失利。长期的战乱环境使以色列国防军成为中东地区能征善战的军队，在其战史上除1968年的卡拉玛战争、1973年十月战争初期失利外，再没有其他失败的记录。但是2006年的黎巴嫩战争却是以色列军队面颜失尽，以色列政府也遭到朝野的抨击。无论是以色列政府还是军队一直想通过另一次战争雪洗前耻。

——为日后谈判谋取更有利的地位，以便获取更多的现实利益。军事行动永远是为政治目的服务的。以色列的政治领袖们当然清楚地知道，战争不可能最终解决阿以冲突和巴勒斯坦问题。所以铲除巴勒斯坦的抵抗力量并不是最终目的而是手段，是为了在日后的巴以谈判中使自身处于更强大、更有利的地位，操控解决冲突的进程和结果。

引发世界关注的加沙战争

加沙战争看似是以色列与巴勒斯坦之间的冲突，但随着战事的发展它牵动了世界，引起国际社会的普遍关注。从以色列、被占领的巴勒斯坦到阿拉伯国家和世界各国几乎都有支持以色列发动加沙战争的势力和支持巴勒斯坦为维护民族权利而斗争的呼声。

2009年初在特拉维夫和耶路撒冷就先后发生了支持以军发动加沙战争和反对战争的游行，游行的人们甚至发生了对峙和冲突。在加沙和西岸地区更是经常发生抗议以色列的示威游行，加沙民众有时甚至是手捧或怀抱着死者（儿童）的尸体，群情激愤地聚集在一起抗议以色列的虐杀行为。阿拉伯各国——埃及、约旦、黎巴嫩、叙利亚等国普遍开展了抗议以色列发动战争和滥杀无辜的示威游行。

以色列发动空袭加沙的当天，联合国秘书长潘基文就发表声明，对空袭并造成众多平民伤亡表示谴责，同时呼吁有关各方“立即停止一切暴力行为”。1月6日潘基文再次强烈谴责以色列轰炸联合国兴办的3所学校。梵蒂冈也谴责了以色列的行为，认为目前加沙的情况就像一个“巨大的集中营”（big concentration camp）[3] 法国总统萨科齐和刚刚接任的欧盟轮值主席国捷克外长先后访问中东，但都没能促使以色列停止对加沙地带的军事行动。

欧洲犹太人也在许多国家发起了一系列的游行，他们打着铲除哈马斯恐怖活动（End Hamas Terror）的口号，支持以色列发动的加沙战争，打击哈马斯武装。就在1月8日美国众议院还通过了一项支持以色列的决议，尽管决议也承认加沙地区的人道主义形势变得更为严峻。与此同时，许多国家的穆斯林也同样发起了支持巴勒斯坦、支持哈马斯的声援游行。1月8日马来西亚总理巴达维呼吁联合国对以色列实施经济制裁，以遏止以色列军事入侵加沙，并作为过去对巴勒斯坦人暴行的惩罚。马来西亚教育部则号召全国一万多所学校的500万学生和37万教师，参加反对以色列入侵巴勒斯坦的运动，向国际社会传达反暴力的声音。印度尼西亚协商议会主席谴责以色列是新殖民主义，制造了大屠杀（Holocaust）。委内瑞拉总统甚至谴责以色列进行种族灭绝（Genocide），并因此驱逐了以色列大使。[4]

加沙战火甚至蔓延到“虚拟世界”，这在世界战争史上恐怕尚属首次。首先是以色列利用自身强大的媒体，在因特网上开展宣传战，利用在“YOUTUBE”和“TWITTER”网站上建立的网页为发动加沙战争辩解。一些亲以的势力和网民也摇旗呐喊加入到“网络战争”中并扩及到“FACEBOOK”和“SECONDLIFE”等网站。与此同时，支持巴勒斯坦和哈马斯的势力和网民也行动起来在虚拟世界里与对手展开角力，发布以色列轰炸加沙和杀死儿童的悲惨图像等。[5] 据统计已有几十万人参加到挺以和抗以的“虚拟战争”中。

1月8日，联合国安理会通过了1860号决议，郑重呼吁立即、持久和全面遵守停火，以促成以色列从加沙全面撤军，呼吁国际社会提供食品、燃料和医药等人道主义援助。然而，国际社会在外交领域的斡旋和努力收效甚微。

加沙战事与和平前景

目前无论是以色列还是哈马斯都不接受联合国安理会通过的有关停火决议，但双方最终将会有条件地接受停火。

从目前的加沙战争发展态势来看，军事行动还将持续一段时间。以色列已经实现了其主要目标，即对加沙地区数百个所谓哈马斯的据点和基础设施（加沙的政府机构、警察局、清真寺、大学、医院、民宅等）进行狂轰滥炸，重创了哈马斯的军事力量，特别是杀死了许多哈马斯的高级领导人和军事指挥官，包括尼扎尔·拉扬（Nizar Rayyan）和阿布扎卡利亚·杰马尔（Abu Zakaria al-Jamal）等。以色列尚未完全实现其战略目标，还将顶着来自国际社会的压力，继续其在加沙的军事行动。

针对以色列的军事打击哈马斯发表声明说，战争已经打响，将对以色列实施报复，发动“第三次起义”的时机已经来临，哈马斯发誓将给“犹太复国主义敌人以最致命的打击”。但是面对以色列强大的攻势，哈马斯只能进行有限抵抗，更多的是政治和精神上的胜利。在和平时期哈马斯的支持率并不高，而以色列的每一次打击都使哈马斯获得了更多的支持者和同情者，换言之是以色列的暴力行动让哈马斯赢得了更多的支持。此次加沙战争之后，面对以色列的无情杀戮、目睹儿童和无辜平民被杀的惨状，将会有更多的巴勒斯坦人支持哈马斯，甚至会有更多的人甘愿以死相拼。就此意义而言，加沙战争不仅不可能消除暴力，还可能使暴力进一步扩大。

目前比较紧迫的问题是，加沙将面临更加严重的人道主义危机。加沙地区此前就一直处在以色列的海陆空封锁之中，在这片狭长的地域中只留有南部与埃及接壤的“拉法通道”（Rafah crossing）和北部与以色列相连的“伊瑞兹通道”（Erez crossing），使加沙的物资供应十分困难。而近期以色列对加沙的狂轰滥炸则破坏了加沙地区的交通设施、电力、供水、医院等等市政公共设施，使加沙巴勒斯坦人面临着严重的生存危机。

即便是加沙战争结束后，以色列也不会很快撤出。在以色列看来，战后很快撤出加沙地带将给哈马斯喘息的机会，不仅哈马斯将很快得到恢复，也将出现更多的抗击以色列的力量。当然，以色列也不可能永远占领加沙地带。这是因为占领加沙将是以色列投入很多的兵力而且时刻都要提防抗以力量的攻击，而进一步的镇压不仅不可能消灭巴勒斯坦的抗以力量，暴力还会招致世界舆论的批评。因此战争结束后以色列将会择机撤出加沙地带。

目前加沙战火硝烟依旧，以色列境内也时有火箭弹袭击。历史的经验告诉我们，暴力不可能解决巴以冲突问题，只能使通往和平之路更加坎坷。拥有强大实力地位的以色列主导着巴以冲突的进程，掌握着打开和平之门的钥匙。在解决巴以冲突过程中需要双方的妥协、政治远见和智慧，在很大程度上更取决于以色列的政治意愿和政策。

犹太民族经过几代人的努力已经从“不正常的民族”变成了“正常的民族”，但是以色列国家还不是一个“正常的国家”，它依然游离在中东社会之外。只有公正地解决巴勒斯坦问题、以色列融入中东社会才能在该地区实现持久的和平。

英文版见 http://www.bjreview.com.cn/exclusive/txt/2009-01/19/content_175215.htm

【加沙战争】

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/exclusive/txt/2009-01/19/content_175215.htm

UPDATED: January-19-2009 Web Exclusive                                                    web exclusive

The Gaza War

Israel launches a war that no one will win

By  WANG JINGLIE

2008 did not end well. On December 27, Israel initiated a large-scale air attack on the Gaza Strip, a narrow piece of land on the Mediterranean coast. Several days later, it launched a ground offensive, entering the suburbs of Gaza City as the bombing campaign continued. Although Gaza now has 1.5 million Palestinians under Hamas control, there is no regular resistance force against the powerful Israeli war machine. While Gaza militants have continued their deadly rocket and mortar attacks on south Israel, overwhelming Israeli military force has caused severe casualties among Hamas leaders and Palestinian civilians. As of January 18, when both Israel and Hamas announced ceasefire, the conflict had killed about 1,200 Palestinians and wounded more than 5,300. Some critics said that Israel had turned Gaza into a ghost town.

A polarizing war

Israel started the war for four reasons.

The first is to destroy Hamas's military capability. The paramilitary-political hybrid organization, which won the Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, once insisted on establishing a Palestinian Islamic state encompassing Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. Although the organization generally accepts a two-state solution, it still has fairly extreme and powerful military forces. According to Israeli statistics, altogether 1,257 rockets hit the country in 2008, most of which were launched by Hamas. Israel views Hamas as a thorn in its side and had been planning the current attack for a long time.

The second reason is to bolster support for candidates before the general election in February. Polls show that the ruling Kadima party has been losing ground to the hawkish Likud party as Israeli voters become more conservative. Striking Hamas could save Kadima's electoral chances. Shortly before the conflict began last month, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who leads Kadima, vowed to end Hamas rule if elected prime minister. "The means for doing this should be military, economic and diplomatic," she said.

The third reason is to erase the shame of the Lebanon war in 2006. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are famous for their outstanding military ability, but they lost face when they overreached in Lebanon. The month-long conflict temporarily weakened Hezbollah, the Islamic militant group based in Lebanon, but the civilian deaths and destroyed infrastructure increased Hezbollah's public support. The ill-conceived conflict drew criticism in Israel from both government opponents and supporters. The Israeli Government and the IDF are using the Gaza war to redeem themselves.

Israel can also use the war to improve its position in future peace negotiations. Israeli leaders are aware that this war cannot be the final solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But weakening Hamas and its extremist stance will benefit Israel at the negotiating table.

As the Israeli assault escalates, it is drawing more world attention. Both Israelis and Palestinians receive overseas support throughout the world.

Demonstrations in Israel have both supported and objected to Israeli actions, with protestors angrily confronting each other. Protestors in Europe, Canada and the United States have been similarly split. In Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, people protested the deaths of innocent Palestinians.

Right after Israel began bombing Gaza, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon released a statement condemning the Israeli attack for causing so many civilian casualties. He also called on both sides to stop all violence immediately. On January 6, after Israeli military strikes hit three UN schools in Gaza, Ban strongly upbraided Israel once again. The Vatican also criticized Israeli behavior, comparing Gaza to "a big concentration camp." EU leaders including French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, who assumed the European Union's rotating presidency on January 1, flew to the Middle East to mediate. But none of these measures stopped Israeli rockets.

The war is also playing out on the Internet in unprecedented ways. Israel has used websites like YouTube and Twitter to conduct a propaganda war defending its actions. Supporters on both sides have engaged in a war of words on Facebook, and the war has even spilled into the virtual world Second Life, where hostile protesters converged on virtual Israel. Meanwhile, pro-Palestinian organizations and netizens released information and images of the suffering in Gaza. It was reported that hundreds of thousands of people have participated in the virtual war on the Internet.

On January 8, the UN Security Council approved Resolution 1860, calling for an immediate ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal. The resolution also demanded unimpeded access for humanitarian aid. But mediation efforts have been unsuccessful so far.

Prospects for war and peace

Neither Israel nor Hamas will agree to a ceasefire unless certain conditions are met.

Judging from the current situation, military activity in Gaza will continue for some time. Israel has realized its major goal of striking Hamas. The war has destroyed hundreds of Hamas operations centers and infrastructure facilities, including government buildings, police stations, mosques, schools, hospitals and residences. The fighting has also killed senior Hamas leaders such as Nizar Rayyan and Abu Zakaria al-Jamal. But Israel will continue its military activity in Gaza in spite of international pressure, so as to reach its strategic target of occupying a dominant position in future negotiations.

Hamas has vowed revenge, but it has limited ability to resist Israel's powerful offensive. The victories Hamas obtains will be political and spiritual rather than military triumphs.

During peacetime, Hamas does not have high support among Palestinians. But every time Israel attacks, Hamas wins more supporters and sympathizers. The Gaza war will push Palestinians weary of civilian deaths into Hamas's welcoming arms. Instead of reducing the potential for future violence, this war has increased it.

A more urgent problem is Gaza's dangerous humanitarian crisis. The Gaza Strip was under an Israeli blockade long before the war began. With only the Rafah checkpoint connecting Egypt in the south, and the Erez checkpoint connecting Israel in the north, material supplies are difficult to obtain. Gaza's public facilities including transportation, water and power supply and hospitals-which were already under strain from the blockade-have now been mostly destroyed, putting the Palestinians at great risk.

Even if the war ends, Israel will not withdraw immediately. It believes that if it does so, Hamas will get a chance to catch its breath. Then, not only can Hamas recover quickly, it can mobilize more resistance forces.

But Israel cannot occupy the Gaza Strip forever, either. Israel would have to maintain a large military presence there to fend off endless attacks by Palestinian resistance forces. Further repression will fuel Palestinian resistance and draw worldwide condemnation. Therefore, Israel will choose the best opportunity to pull out of the Gaza Strip after the war ends.

History proves that violence is not the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and it will make the road to peace even rougher. Israel now dominates the peace process. Both sides must be prepared to compromise, but Israel's political willingness and policies are more crucial.

After several generations' efforts, the Jewish nation has become a normal nation. But Israel is still not a normal state, because it remains disassociated from its neighbors in the Middle East. Only by solving the Palestinian problem with justice can Israel truly become a member of Middle East society, and permanent peace be realized in the region.

The author is Director of the Division of Middle East Studies at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

From: “Beijing Review”No.4, January 22, 2009